Bright-siding: The consequences of failure

by David Spratt / Part 4 of a 5-part series

"Political reality must be grounded in physical reality or it's completely useless."
– Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute

PDF download IN THIS SERIES... “Always look on the bright side of life”: Bright-siding climate advocacy and its consequences Part 1: Introduction Part 2: What bright-siding climate advocacy looks like Part 3: Is all “good news” and no “bad news” a good strategy? Part 4: The consequences of failure Part 5: Rethinking climate communication and engagement

If you avoid including an honest assessment of climate science and impacts in your narrative, its pretty difficult to give people a grasp about where the climate system is heading and what needs to be done to create the conditions for living in climate safety, rather than increasing and eventually catastrophic harm. But that’s how the big climate advocacy organisations have generally chosen to operate, and it represents a strategic failure to communicate.
     Climate policy in Australia is trapped in a culture of failure and low expectation. The reason given for advocating solutions that would still result in dangerous climate change is that what really needs to be done is "too big” to message effectively.The Australian Conservation Foundation, for example, adopted a 350 policy several years ago, but never made in part of their advocacy because (unofficially) “the comms people couldn’t find a way to message it”.
     Ken Ward, a former deputy-director of Greenpeace (USA), identifies "a consensual public policy hallucination that abrupt climate change can be addressed without great conflict". Everybody from the UN Secretary-General to business commentator Alan Kohler now calls climate an emergency, but it is still a non-no for most climate campaigning organisations.

Climate News

Weeks ending 22 April 2012 

No Letup in World's Warming
http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2012/04/scienceshot-no-letup-in-worlds.html
No let-up in world's warming as ocean heat content continues to grow

Is all “good news” and no “bad news” a good strategy?

by David Spratt / Part 3 of a 5-part series

"If people don’t know there’s a problem, they won’t try to solve it."
– Bill McKibben

PDF download IN THIS SERIES... “Always look on the bright side of life”: Bright-siding climate advocacy and its consequences Part 1: Introduction Part 2: What bright-siding climate advocacy looks like Part 3: Is all “good news” and no “bad news” a good strategy? Part 4: The consequences of failure Part 5: Rethinking climate communication and engagement

Bright-siding climate advocacy is based on the view that:

• Only positive "good news" messages work. Don't mention “bad news" such as climate impacts and don’t communicate the magnitude of the problem, because people can't deal with it; and
• The good-news story is first and foremost about “clean” or renewable energy, so construct public messages dominated by renewables and economic benefit, not about about replacing fossil fuels.

An example of trying to avoid “bad news” was the decision by the Australian government not to call the carbon tax a carbon tax.  Instead it used the confusing term, a “price on pollution”. This left the discourse about taxes entirely to opposition leader Tony Abbott, with devastating consequences. And then the government, having avoided the “tax” word, made its core pitch about…  how you will get a personal tax break: “How much support will my family get? Estimate your assistance here…” 
     If ever there is evidence that “bad news” can work, it is Australian federal opposition leader Tony Abbott’s unrelentingly assault on the Gillard government.
     The proposition that only "good news" messages work will be looked at again in Part 5 of this series. Of course, the good news about renewable energy is a key component in engaging people, and in reducing emissions.  As renewables move towards becoming cost competitive with fossil fuel energy sources at a speed unimaginable just a few years ago, it is an even more compelling story. But the point here is that it is not the ONLY story, nor a sufficient one.

What bright-siding climate advocacy looks like

by David Spratt / Part 2 of a 5-part series

PDF download IN THIS SERIES... “Always look on the bright side of life”: Bright-siding climate advocacy and its consequences Part 1: Introduction Part 2: What bright-siding climate advocacy looks like Part 3: Is all “good news” and no “bad news” a good strategy? Part 4: The consequences of failure Part 5: Rethinking climate communication and engagement

What do the Obama administration, Australia’s Labor government, the 2011 “Say Yes” campaign and many national climate advocacy organisations, share?  They share a common view on how to market action on climate:

• Only positive "good news" messages work. Don't mention “bad news" such as climate impacts and don’t communicate the magnitude of the problem, because people can't deal with it; and
• The good-news story is first and foremost about “clean” or renewable energy, so construct public messages dominated by renewables and economic benefit, not about about replacing fossil fuels and closing down coal.

The Obama administration tried, unsuccessfully, to frame legislation to reduce greenhouse emissions as being about “energy independence”. It did not pass, but that was not principally Obama’s fault. But taking climate off the agenda was, says Jonathan Lash of the World Resources Institute:

I don’t blame the president for the failure of climate legislation, but I do hold him accountable for allowing opponents to fill the void with misinformation and outright lies about climate change… By excising ‘climate change’ from his vocabulary, the president has surrendered the power that only he has to explain challenging issues and advance complex solutions for our country.

“Always look on the bright side of life”: Bright-siding climate advocacy and its consequences

by David Spratt / Part 1 of a 5-part series

At a forum in Melbourne this February on “Saving lives... reframing climate change around health and livelihoods”  (powerpoint with audio), Daniel Voronoff summed up our dilemma:

People of vision, working together patiently and persistently, have inspired their community and changed the course of history. These leaders, recognising the threat to civilisation posed by climate change, have successfully alerted many of the public to the danger it faces. After many years and great resistance from powerful and ruthless people, an empowered community has achieved an epic win. The country has taken its first steps towards a ‘clean energy future’. But time is running out and much more needs to be done to prevent the catastrophe. Also, their enemies are using lies and fear to win the hearts and minds of the people, and destroy their hard won gains. Everything may be lost – unless the leaders reach out to a resistant public in new ways and tell them the truth about the threat to health, lives and livelihoods that we face.

Climate News

Weeks ending 8 April and 15 April 2012 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"We're in an emergency: you can see what's on the horizon... with ecosystems, sea level and species extinction" – Dr James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/apr/06/nasa-scientist-climate-change

PICKS OF THE WEEK

Nasa scientist: climate change is a moral issue on a par with slavery
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/apr/06/nasa-scientist-climate-change
Severin Carrell, Guardian, 6 April 2012
Prof Jim Hansen to use lecture at Edinburgh International Science Festival to call for worldwide tax on all carbon emissions
AND
Global warming projections from 1981 prove tellingly accurate
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/rooted/2012/04/12/global-warming-projections-from-1981-prove-tellingly-accurate/
Amber Jamieson, Crikey, 12 April 2012
A seminal article by climate scientists in 1981 has proved eerily accurate at predicting global temperature rises over the past three decades, with its lead author James Hansen telling Crikey that his early research on global warming "seems to hold up remarkably well".

Triggering permafrost meltdown is closer than we think

• Current levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are probably sufficient to trigger large-scale permafrost carbon feedbacks and global warming that human effort would be unable to contain.

• The time to slash emissions was a long time ago but now is still much, much better than later, which may, as new studies suggests, simply become too late.

Thawing permafrost

Two future climate impacts above all others will overwhelm human efforts to mitigate global warming should temperatures and carbon dioxide levels reach critical levels, which in the latter case we are already close to achieving.
       The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 3 to 6 degrees Celsius higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 25 to 40 metres higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland.

Pretending more severe sea level rise scenarios don't exist is a poor way to manage risk

by David Spratt

Sea-level rise projections are being ignored in a foolish bet by Australian governments that the more severe outcomes won't occur. Tens of millions of dollars are being wasted on risk assessments and adaptation reports that may soon be superceded.

How much sea levels will rise with climate change is fundamental to planning the future of our coasts, with more government money being spent on coastal adaptation studies than any other global warming impact in Australia. Hoping the worst won't happen is a risky approach, because the worst possibilities have the greatest impact on people, property and infrastructure, with possibly incalculable damage. Ignoring the science also opens the way to litigation for a failure to exercise duty of care by planning authorities.

Climate News

Week ending 1 April 2012

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

From Giles Parkinson on the race to the bottom by three State Liberal Premiers:
“There is a saying going around that the world did not leave the Stone Age because it ran out of stones. But what is the chance of it returning there if it runs out of brains?”
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/five-things-we-learned-this-week-74612

PICKS OF THE WEEK

National US Record Events For March 2012
http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/climate/records/2012/03/us.html
An amazing map!

6 Things You Should Know About The Value Of Renewable Energy

by Adam James, a Climate Progress cross-post

Clean energy should play a central role in revitalizing our economy, putting Americans back to work, and keeping America on the cutting edge of innovation and growth. Recently a slew of misguided attacks on the merits of clean energy have exchanged petty partisanship for hard facts.
Here are the top six things you really need to know:

1. Clean energy is competitive with other types of energy
2. Clean energy creates three times more jobs than fossil fuels
3. Clean energy improves grid reliability
4. Clean energy investment has surpassed investments in fossil fuels
5. Investments in clean energy are cost effective
6. Fossil fuels have gotten 75 times more subsidies than clean energy

Elwood: when poor planning and climate change collide at the coastline

If you wanted to see what happens when poor planning and climate change collide, the place to be last night was a floods forum in the Melbourne Bayside suburb of Elwood, which was subject to severe flooding a year ago. 
    The local mayor and councillors, MPs and neighbouring councillors all fronted up to a packed hall of 300 people, but there were two noticeable absences. Despite promising to come, no-one from Melbourne Water, which is responsible for the drainage system across Melbourne, actually turned up.  And the state government, which is ultimately responsible for planning, did not send a representative despite numerous requests, including on the floor of parliament.

Climate News

Week ending 25 March 2012  

PICKS OF THE WEEK

After Fixing Errors, UK Met Office Says 2010, 2005 Hottest Years on Record, World Warming Faster Than Thought
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/03/19/447610/fixing-errors-uk-met-office-says-2010-2005-hottest-years-on-record-world-warming-faster-than-thought
Joe Romm, Climate Progress,  March 19, 2012
The UK Met Office said two years ago it had underestimated recent warming. The key reason is their temperature dataset undersampled the Arctic — the place on earth warming up the fastest.

Mankind kept 2011 global temperatures near record-WMO
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/us-wmo-climate-report-idUSBRE82M0OL20120323
Reuters, 23 March 2012
Human activity kept global temperatures close to a record high in 2011 despite the cooling influence of a powerful La Nina weather pattern, the World Meteorological Organization said.

What Australia can learn from the world’s best de-carbonisation policies

A Post-Carbon Pathways crosspost

by John Wiseman and Taegen Edwards

Around the world an increasing number of detailed policy road maps are demonstrating the possibility, necessity and urgency of a rapid transition to a just and sustainable post carbon future. The key barriers to this transition are social and political, not technological and financial.
     The Post Carbon Pathways report, published by the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne and the Centre for Policy Development has reviewed 18 of the most comprehensive and rigorous post carbon economy transition strategies.
As Australia enters the next phase of the climate change policy debate, this report will provide vital information on how other jurisdictions are designing and implementing large-scale plans to remove carbon from their economies.

State of the Climate 2012: an addendum

14 March 2012: Australia's CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology have released their State of the Climate 2012. The report is here, there is a commentary at The Conversation, and I have reproduced their full media release below. An interactive data visualisation explores sea level rise patterns across Australia using data sets provided to the ABC by CSIRO.

Changes in average temperature for Australia for each year (orange line) and each decade (grey boxes), and 11-year average (black line – an 11-year period is the standard used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Anomalies are the departure from the 1961-1990 average climatological period. The average value for the most recent 10-year period (2002–2011) is shown in darker grey. Bureau of Meteorology

It is a concise and very useful compilation of the data, but on one point they have taken a very conservative stand. One of the most reported findings in both the mass and social media was that the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of the atmosphere had risen to around 390 parts per million in 2011, a level unprecedented in the past 800,000 years. Given the new available evidence, that should be 15 million years. 
     That's right, CO levels have not been as high today in the last 15 million years!!

Climate News

Week ending 18 March 2012

PICKS OF THE WEEK

Climate Commission report: The science behind southeast Australia’s wet, cool summer, and climate link to heavy rains
http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-science-behind-southeast-australias-wet-cool-summer/
Most parts of Australia have experienced exceptionally heavy rains over the past two years, filling many dams around the country and breaking the drought of 1997–2009. There has been much confusion in the media about what this means for climate change. This report seeks to set the record straight.

State of the Climate 2012: an addendum
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/03/state-of-climate-2012-addendum.html
ClimateCodeRed, 14 March 2012
Today Australia's CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology released their State of the Climate 2012.
REPORT
State of the Climate - 2012
http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2012.aspx

Faustian bargain revisited: study finds zeroed emissions will add 0.25-0.5C of warming as aerosol cooling is lost

NASA climate science chief James Hansen’s description of the aerosol dilemma as a “Faustian bargain” has been dramatically illustrated in a new scientific paper by Damon Matthews and Kirsten Zickfeld and published in Nature on 4 March 2012. As we previously discussed in Beyond the carbon price, a Faustian bargain:    

Human activity modifies the impact of the greenhouse effect by the release of airborne particulate pollutants known as aerosols. These include black-carbon soot, organic carbon, sulphates, nitrates, as well as dust from smoke, manufacturing, wind storms, and other sources. Aerosols have a net cooling effect because they reduce the amount of sunlight that reaches the ground and they increase cloud cover. This is popularly known as "global dimming", because the overall aerosol impact is to mask some of the warming effect of greenhouse gases. Aerosols are washed out of the atmosphere by rain on average every 10 days, so their cooling effect is only maintained because of continuing human pollution, the principal source of which is the burning of fossil fuels, which also cause a rise in carbon dioxide levels and global warming that lasts for many centuries.

Climate News

 Week ending 11 March 2012

PICKS OF THE WEEK

Concern over Greenland warming: tipping point at 1.6C warming?
http://main.omanobserver.om/node/86372
AFP/Oman Observer, 10 March 2012
The Greenland ice sheet is more sensitive to global warming than thought, for just a relatively small — but very long term — temperature rise would melt it completely, according to a study published.

Perth swelters through record 8th summer heatwave
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-11/perth-swelters-through-record-heatwaves/3882394
ABC News, 11 March 2011
Perth is sweltering through the eighth heatwave of the summer and autumn seasons, the first time such an event has happened since records started being kept in 1897AND
AND
Bureau of Meteorology Special Climate Statement 39: Exceptional heavy rainfall across southeast Australia
www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs38.pdf

Hot Earth: Science and anti-science at the AAAS

A Radio Ecoshock Show cross-post

http://bit.ly/w1bCQY Listen to presentations by NASA climate scientist James Hansen, and best-selling author and science writer Cris Mooney at 2012 AAAS.

Just back from the American Academy for the Advancement of Science annual conference 2012, this is Alex Smith. I've recorded two of the best speechs of the weekend gathering of thousands of scientists, held this year in Vancouver, Canada.

Climate News

Week ending 4 March 2012

PICKS OF THE WEEK

Syria: Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/03/03/437051/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest
Francesco Femia & Caitlin Werrell, Climate Progress, 3 March 2012
Syria’s current social unrest is, in the most direct sense, a reaction to a brutal and out-of-touch regime and a response to the political wave of change that began in Tunisia early last year. However, that’s not the whole story.

Old king coal
http://www.economist.com/node/21548237
Economist blog, 25 February 2012
Asian growth will remain fuelled by coal, which is worrying for the planet

Carbon price no obstacle to deadly expansion of Australian coal (and gas), as new study finds replacing coal with gas will not lower rate of global warming for 100 years

[Updated 3 March 2012]

Recently, the Labor member for Blaxland in the Australian Parliament, Jason Clare, fired a salvo at the Liberal opposition for their hypocrisy on carbon pricing: claiming it would cost coal jobs while they were busily…  investing in more coal.
     Here’s an extract, courtesy of the Sydney Morning Herald: