James Hansen and the scientific contest about accelerated warming: 2025 is the crunch year

by David Spratt, first published at Pearls and Irritations

The record-breaking warming years of 2023 (1.5°C) and 2024 (1.6°C) were above expectations and shocked scientists. Their responses and the subsequent research are a good example of how quickly the physical reality is changing, driving new and contested understandings.

In late 2023, as global and ocean temperatures soared, the most upfront assessment came from Zeke Hausfather: “Staggering. Unnerving. Mind-boggling. Absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.” It was a widely-shared view, with responses such as “unprecedented” and “frightening”. “We’re not as aware of what’s coming as we thought we were,” said Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the University of NSW.

As well, the decline in Antarctic sea-ice extent was much greater than model projections, leading Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center to exclaim: “It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing.” The same was true for North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which were literally off the chart.

Is AUKUS a priority when climate change - which should be the focus - is about to upend our region?

By Adm. Chris Barrie (Ret.), first published at The Canberra Times and Pearls and Irritations

Global security alliances are in turmoil, and Australia needs to critically  rethink its defence and foreign affairs policies.
I have watched with alarm as Donald Trump and the Republican administration upend traditional alliances. This is the harshest wake-up call since the Fall of Singapore in 1942. Trump may be gone in four years, but the Republican Party and America's political landscape are being fundamentally changed. 

An immediate concern is the future of the American-built nuclear-powered submarines due from the early 2040s through to the late 2050s under AUKUS. There is an increasing likelihood that the US will never build us the submarines, as Trump administration officials have made clear.